How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19
This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to to explore the graph from the video yourself!
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics:
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site:
Data Source:
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus:
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world?
Understanding logarithmic scales:
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight:
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
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Created by Henry Reich

  • Hamisi Abdallah
    Hamisi Abdallah

    You can make this Juice at home to attack Covid-19

  • Gordon GM
    Gordon GM

    Oh yeah China successfully contained the virus? I doubt that

  • Initially Intellectual
    Initially Intellectual

    Why you stoped uploading

  • Jesse Wood
    Jesse Wood

    “In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is”

  • BugPvP :p
    BugPvP :p

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="91">1:31</a> OMG THAT TOOK SO LONG TO CAPTURE "*Hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?"

  • Randy Smith
    Randy Smith

    That might as well be a plot of China's credibility... DROPPING LIKE A ROCK!

  • Jinhong PARK
    Jinhong PARK

    My country: *I AM MEDICINE* My country: South Korea

  • Kalan Saunders
    Kalan Saunders

    Covid 19 is ending in Australia

  • Eben Visher
    Eben Visher

    What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

  • 王荺勝

    Chinese data are fake

  • 刘娅

    well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot... so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country. I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone 希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )

  • Alexander Jackson
    Alexander Jackson

    Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.

  • Eva Lam
    Eva Lam

    China is LYING !!!!

    • 江枫

      That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD

  • nitchvideo

    Here is a powerful source of understanding. and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding

  • John the Greek
    John the Greek

    Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying. Great video though

  • Freeda Peeple
    Freeda Peeple

    I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

  • Benjamin Genco
    Benjamin Genco

    I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet

  • Jewelry Bag
    Jewelry Bag

    This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off

  • wojeff

    March 24: this video was filmed March 25: highest exponential growth point in US March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US March 27: this video premiered

  • Eugenia Sum
    Eugenia Sum

    They didn’t include Taiwan tho

    • wojeff

      I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)!

  • Bern Metro
    Bern Metro

    Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.

    • wojeff

  • Jorge Cossa
    Jorge Cossa


  • Mario Z
    Mario Z

    The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.

    • wojeff

      That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here:

  • Yash Pal Goyal
    Yash Pal Goyal

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="386">6:26</a> please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right:

    • Yash Pal Goyal
      Yash Pal Goyal

      otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.

  • Arwah Sapi
    Arwah Sapi

    Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"

  • Fez Paladin
    Fez Paladin


  • sk Farhan
    sk Farhan

    Hey you haven't made new video yet Where are you?

  • John Hailstone
    John Hailstone

    And post-viral effects.


    Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....

  • IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

    >implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything

  • tom091178

    Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.

  • Tae-young Kim
    Tae-young Kim

    중국은 조작인거 아시죠?

  • North Korea
    North Korea

    America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes

    • no name
      no name

      Russia: Cyka Blyat

    • Wendull 81
      Wendull 81

      Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.

  • 52marli

    I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.

  • Dodger Yassel
    Dodger Yassel

    You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.

  • khoen Da boss
    khoen Da boss

    Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.

  • Jean Poutine
    Jean Poutine

    Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.

  • Davin Riedstra
    Davin Riedstra

    This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

    • Mister Comple
      Mister Comple

  • Parakmi I
    Parakmi I

    To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.

  • pragadeesh sv
    pragadeesh sv

    can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?


    COVID-19: *_exists_* Korea CDC: *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*

  • Rin

    this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..

    • Mister Comple
      Mister Comple

      your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data

  • jokinabadsbs

    China... Success?! HAH what a joke.

  • CircleDrawing

    US isn't tough

  • 김철수


  • Jacob E Owens
    Jacob E Owens

    Nobody believes the numbers out of China...

  • Simranjeet singh matharoo
    Simranjeet singh matharoo

    "don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there

  • what is life
    what is life

    Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!

    • 江枫

      Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here

  • Rachel’s rants I.
    Rachel’s rants I.

    Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.

  • AGR

    Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...

  • 소고기커피

    im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.

  • Paul Matencio
    Paul Matencio

    Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead

  • Naomi Harding
    Naomi Harding

    Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.

  • Ciron Soauv
    Ciron Soauv

    What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...

  • Bigdatamonk Inc.
    Bigdatamonk Inc.

    @minutephysics Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.

  • banbanrocks

    Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?

    • Russ Wilkie
      Russ Wilkie

      It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.

  • Ron Chasr
    Ron Chasr

    Your not and wont be for a while. Dont be surprised if you have 200,000 or even 1,000,000 dead. America is finally no.1 at something.

  • Robert Lockwood
    Robert Lockwood

    Be nice to see the graphs normalized by cases per 100,000 population but I expect that there would be even more overlap.

  • dead pool
    dead pool

    Are we wining or losing

  • Matthew Snyder
    Matthew Snyder

  • XCMysterious Hope
    XCMysterious Hope

    After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.

  • Harb Winetin
    Harb Winetin

    China's number of cases are a lie of course.

    • banbanrocks

      People like you are the cause of delayed responses in the West. Arrogant and ignorant. Mostly arrogant, I'd say.

  • savemelofi

    Can someone explain to me why the CCP is being defended in these comments?

    • savemelofi

      @banbanrocks But the CCP has been covering up the truth.

    • banbanrocks

      It's about the truth, not CCP.

  • Ben E
    Ben E

    Probably should throw out chinas numbers...


    Good job Trump, you made the West and the East turn against each other once again.

    • banbanrocks

      Hope not. If the people of West and East would listen to Trump and really turn against each other, we as mankind deserve to be doomed


    I like how everyone is being biased to China while I sit here as a Chinese and say, “Okay, THIS IS ALL GONNA BE FINE.”

    • IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

      The problem is China's oppressive, lying, single-party government. The people of China are not to blame for the actions (and non-actions) of the CCP.

  • Prakash Goyal
    Prakash Goyal

    Hello friends today is my birthday. Kya aap mere ko ak subscribe gift me de sakte ho

  • supersonic2K8

    This animation is also shows the overall trend of kills scored by my civilization in Stellaris over the course of the game. Exponential growth untill only my civilization remains. >:)

  • 한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller
    한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller

    Just don't do it.

  • Eclipse Z
    Eclipse Z

    My country *I AM SPEED* Also my country- *The USA*

  • aredesuyo

    So basically, when you consider all the caveats, you just wasted your time making a nice visualization of a bunch of bullshit.

    • Russ Wilkie
      Russ Wilkie

      This is about Covid-19, not about your conception

  • Harrison Yoo
    Harrison Yoo

    Not China though

  • Our World Visualised
    Our World Visualised

    Good stuff

  • Tim Allen
    Tim Allen

    Is there a more up to date version of the data yet? I would love to see how the UK compares with the rest of the world.


    If you think China is being truthful about their death numbers, you are an ignoramus.

  • hawk0485

    Why did you remove the country selection tool?!

  • Darren Dentremont
    Darren Dentremont

    Why are you showing China ? There numbers are not to be trusted at all.

  • mt89

    COVID 19 ORIGINATED in USA. The virus was leaked from Fort Detrick, Maryland in July 2019. The bio-warfare lab was subsequently shutdown due to leakage. A substantial proportion of US flu cases were in fact covid19 cases. On 12 Mar 2020, CDC official had admitted that "some" flu cases in the US are COVID 19 cases. COVID 19 is spreading in US as early as August 2019, the gov just covers it up. The American athletes brought the virus to Wuhan when they participated in World Military Games. #Thanksforthevirus #UScovid19 #NewYorkVirus #AmericaVirus #FluNoTestNoVirus #NoWearMask


    18 thing you should know about COVID

  • j c
    j c

    idk why youtube are so sour. the country of china is opening up the society, kids are going to school, factories are open, things are running back to normal. if the gov lies then there will be a hell show of dead body laying every, which is not the case. why don't some just admit that many countries like america and britain got y'all fucked up, world is not expect you make no mistake. looks like a joke when y'all yelling fake number with millions infected to some other countries where people back to normal life and don't give shit what you think

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